TSM: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $434.67, the model at each driver's own trend prices TSM at $51.92. The read below shows which reported driver, if any, closes that gap alone.
For today's price to be right, every growth line has to run about 40 points a year above its own trend. No single line can reach the price on its own.
| Moves price | Line | Last print | Trend | Price needs | You |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenueyear one | — | +15% | — | — | |
| Gross marginlevel · 7 prints | 56.1%Dec 2024 | — | unobserved | — | |
| Operating expenses as % of net revenuelevel | — | — | unobserved | — |
No single line can reach today's price on its own; every line is held at its trend.
Every cell is the model's price with Revenue at that level, the rest at trend. One row, because no second line has a measured sensitivity. The blue cells are where today's price ($435) sits; the other filled cells are model-price positions, not good/bad calls.
● the last print · ○ the trend · ◆ you. each cell is the model price with Revenue at that level and every other driver at trend; axes include the price-needs point, trend and last print when available; a growth level is the first-year rate fading like trend, a ratio holds; cells within ±2% of today's price are the line
At trend, revenue is 1.7× today's in 5 years. The level is from the income statement.
revenue in FY2024-12-31 compounded along the bar's path and along the trend's path for 5 years; the figures beside it are what named counterparties stated, with sources; Dawo does not divide the two
Today's price sits 737% above the model at trend. Any one of these levers closes that gap alone; which of them the market is using is not observable from the price.
| Lever | Needs | Reference | Sits | In words |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The discount rate | — | 9.5% | not observable | out of range: even 0.03 prices the model at 139.61 against today's 434.67; the model's rate is 9.5% (risk-free 4.9%, equity premium 4.0%, beta 1.14) |
| The terminal multiple | — | 27.0× | not observable | out of range: even 30 prices the model at 55.85 against today's 434.67; the model's multiple is 27.0x for Technology |
each lever solved alone with every other input at the model's own value; positional words, no verdict
▸ Driver by driver · the numbers
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | +15.0% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Gross margin | 56.1% 2024-12-31 | — | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
| Operating expenses as % of net revenue | — | — | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
No single driver can reach today's price on its own; the common delta above is the read.
What the filings and calls say
- · revenue direction: raised. We maintain strong confidence for our full year 2026 revenue to now grow by above 30% in U.S. dollar terms. — transcript · tier A
- · margin direction: maintained. We maintain strong confidence for our full year 2026 revenue to now grow by above 30% in U.S. dollar terms. — transcript · tier A
What would change the picture
- Next reported Revenue print clears the read's bar — no print on file yet
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines TSM itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by public_showcase_integrity_gate. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.