NVDA: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $218.36, the price is right if every growth driver NVDA reports runs -6.8% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $361.01. The driver that carries it is Data Center Revenue: the price needs +22.5% against a +40.0% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center Revenue | +117.0% 2026-07-26 | +40.0% | +22.5% | ↑ leans higher · 34 for, 10 against |
| Automotive revenue growth (within Compute & Networking) | +39.0% 2026-01-25 | +39.0% | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
| Gaming revenue | +41.0% 2026-01-25 | +40.0% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| Professional Visualization revenue | +70.0% 2026-01-25 | +40.0% | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
| Graphics revenue growth (rest of segment) | +57.0% 2026-01-25 | +40.0% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| GAAP Gross Margin | 75.0% 2026-07-26 | 75.0% | can't reach it alone | ↓ leans lower · 1 for, 4 against |
| GAAP operating expenses to revenue | 8.7% 2026-07-26 | 8.7% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
What the filings and calls say
- · AMZN release 2026-07-30: Free cash flow turned negative. Free cash flow decreased to an outflow of $7.6 billion for the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 20 — cross_entity · tier A
- · Enterprise AI Adoption Acceleration – Vertical Stack Expansion. Filing states 'enterprises and startups across a broad range of industries use our accelerated c — opportunities · tier A
- · META release 2026-07-29: Q2 2026 Capital Expenditures. Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases were $31.08 billion in Q2 2026. — cross_entity · tier A
- · GOOGL release 2026-07-22: Gemini API token processing capacity. Gemini models process 22 billion API tokens per minute. — cross_entity · tier A
- · Gaming Segment Expansion – GeForce for Local AI Inference. Filing explicitly states: 'With the advent of generative and agentic AI, we expect a broader set of P — opportunities · tier A
- · Segment Graphics is 9.7% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Total revenue is expected to be $91B +/-2%. Full year mid-seventies gross margins. Full confidence in $1T in Blackwell and Rubin reve — transcript · tier A
- · Gaming Segment Expansion – GeForce for Local AI Inference. Filing explicitly states: 'With the advent of generative and agentic AI, we expect a broader set of P — opportunities · tier A
- · Segment Graphics is 9.7% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Total revenue is expected to be $91B +/-2%. Full year mid-seventies gross margins. Full confidence in $1T in Blackwell and Rubin reve — transcript · tier A
- · Scale Economics and Manufacturing Leverage – Gross Margin Resilience. Despite Data Center mix shift from Hopper HGX to Blackwell full-scale systems and $4.5B H2 — opportunities · tier A
- · margin direction: maintained. Total revenue is expected to be $91B +/-2%. Full year mid-seventies gross margins. Full confidence in $1T in Blackwell and Rubin r — transcript · tier A
- · Supply Chain Reshoring – US & Latin America Manufacturing Expansion. Filing states 'While currently our supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia, we are expa — opportunities · tier B
- · Long manufacturing lead times, volatile customer demand, and inventory mismatch. NVIDIA orders advanced nodes (5nm, 3nm) 12-18+ months in advance; customer dema — risk_factors · tier B
What would change the picture
- Capex guidance turns down at two or more customers (tier 1) — no print on file yet
- Customers' backlog or RPO stops growing (tier 1) — no print on file yet
- GPU rental rates down more than 30% year on year (tier 3) — no print on file yet
- Data-center construction spending down year on year (tier 2) — no print on file yet · source
- Computer and electronics new orders down year on year (tier 2) — last print 2026-07: 30739 · source
The latest filing
2026-09-03 · NVIDIA agrees to acquire Hugging Face for approximately $11.9 billion, expected to close in first half of 2027 · open the filing · 6 claims read
2026-08-17 · NVIDIA secures 4.25 gigawatt capacity at Ohio data center campus with $105 billion payment obligation cap, with OpenAI as tenant. · open the filing · 5 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines NVDA itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.