MSFT: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $499.70, the price is right if every growth driver MSFT reports runs -6.7% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $710.93. The driver that carries it is Server products and cloud services revenue growth: the price needs +2.7% against a +31.0% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue growth | +17.0% 2026-06-30 | +17.0% | -18.8% | ↑ leans higher · 5 for, 0 against |
| LinkedIn revenue growth | +11.0% 2026-06-30 | +11.0% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Productivity and Business Processes revenue growth (rest of segment) | +15.9% 2026-06-30 | +15.9% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 6 for, 0 against |
| Server products and cloud services revenue growth | +31.0% 2026-06-30 | +31.0% | +2.7% | ↑ leans higher · 3 for, 1 against |
| Intelligent Cloud revenue growth (rest of segment) | +29.7% 2026-06-30 | +29.7% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 3 for, 1 against |
| More Personal Computing revenue growth | -1.1% 2026-06-30 | -1.1% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| gross margin | 67.9% 2026-06-30 | 67.9% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| operating expense ratio | 21.2% 2026-06-30 | 21.2% | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
What the filings and calls say
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect another year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth in FY '27. Full-year FY '26 operating margins expected to — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Productivity and Business Processes is 21.1% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Frontline Worker and SMB Market Expansion. Explicit targeting of 'frontline workers, small and medium businesses, and growth markets' for Microsoft 365 Commerci — opportunities · tier B
- · Microsoft 365 Copilot and Agentic AI Monetization. Integration of generative AI agents across Microsoft 365 Commercial and Dynamics, enabling new use cases in p — opportunities · tier B
- · LinkedIn Talent and Sales Solutions AI Monetization and Engagement. LinkedIn positioned as AI-driven professional network with 'AI-enabled insights and producti — opportunities · tier B
- · 8-K 2026-09-02: Search and advertising metric expansion. Search and advertising revenue (ex TAC) metric now includes LinkedIn Marketing Solutions (ex TAC) and P — filing_8k · tier C
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect another year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth in FY '27. Full-year FY '26 operating margins expected to — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Productivity and Business Processes is 21.1% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Frontline Worker and SMB Market Expansion. Explicit targeting of 'frontline workers, small and medium businesses, and growth markets' for Microsoft 365 Commerci — opportunities · tier B
- · Microsoft 365 Copilot and Agentic AI Monetization. Integration of generative AI agents across Microsoft 365 Commercial and Dynamics, enabling new use cases in p — opportunities · tier B
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect another year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth in FY '27. Full-year FY '26 operating margins expected to — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Intelligent Cloud is 20.8% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Open-source and free AI model displacement. Competitors develop and distribute open-source AI models at little or no cost, earning revenue on advertising or int — risk_factors · tier B
- · Datacentre Capacity and AI Compute Utilization Expansion. Filing explicitly highlights three economies of scale benefit: 'datacenters that coordinate and aggreg — opportunities · tier B
The latest filing
2026-09-02 · Microsoft restructures to two reportable segments: Agents and Infra, and Devices and Consumer, effective FY27. · open the filing · 5 claims read
2026-05-14 · Microsoft appoints Carmine Di Sibio, former EY CEO, to board of directors, expanding board to 13 members. · open the filing · 2 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines MSFT itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.