GOOGL: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $338.46, the price is right if every growth driver GOOGL reports runs -2.3% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $407.84. The driver that carries it is Google Cloud revenue growth: the price needs +4.7% against a +40.0% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Search & other revenue growth | +17.0% 2026-06-30 | +17.0% | +7.6% | ↑ leans higher · 5 for, 2 against |
| YouTube ads revenue growth | +13.0% 2026-06-30 | +13.0% | -39.1% | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Google Services revenue growth (rest of segment) | +12.4% 2025-12-31 | +12.4% | -14.8% | ↑ leans higher · 6 for, 2 against |
| Google Cloud revenue growth | +82.0% 2026-06-30 | +40.0% | +4.7% | ↑ leans higher · 9 for, 4 against |
| Other Bets revenue growth | -6.7% 2025-12-31 | -6.7% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 1 against |
| Operating margin | 34.0% 2026-06-30 | 34.0% | 21.9% | ↓ leans lower · 0 for, 2 against |
What the filings and calls say
- · revenue direction: raised. We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180B–$190B, up from $175B–$185B. We expect 2027 CapEx to significantly in — transcript · tier A
- · Search Market Share Loss to AI Chatbots (OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic, Baidu, Yandex). Filing: 'AI is quickly reshaping the advertising industry' and 'competito — risk_factors · tier B
- · AI Model Competitive Displacement in Search & Core Products. Competitors (OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot, Anthropic) deploying frontier generative AI models with sup — risk_factors · tier B
- · Secular Growth in Multimodal Search & Agentic Query Volume Expansion. Filing notes transition from 'ten blue links' search to 'dynamic, multimodal experience' w — opportunities · tier B
- · Creator Economy & YouTube Monetization Lock-In. Filing states 'YouTube provides people with entertainment, information, and opportunities to learn something new — opportunities · tier B
- · revenue direction: raised. We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180B–$190B, up from $175B–$185B. We expect 2027 CapEx to significantly in — transcript · tier A
- · Search Market Share Loss to AI Chatbots (OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic, Baidu, Yandex). Filing: 'AI is quickly reshaping the advertising industry' and 'competito — risk_factors · tier B
- · AI Model Competitive Displacement in Search & Core Products. Competitors (OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot, Anthropic) deploying frontier generative AI models with sup — risk_factors · tier B
- · Secular Growth in Multimodal Search & Agentic Query Volume Expansion. Filing notes transition from 'ten blue links' search to 'dynamic, multimodal experience' w — opportunities · tier B
- · Enterprise AI Adoption Secular Tailwind & Google Cloud Consumption Expansion. Implicit in filing's emphasis on 'building solutions that provide enterprise custo — opportunities · tier A
- · Google Cloud Market Share Compression vs. AWS, Azure, Alibaba. Filing: 'our competitors are rapidly developing and deploying cloud-based services and capacity' — risk_factors · tier A
- · 8-K 2026-06-04: Google Cloud backlog nearly doubled to over $460 billion. Google Cloud revenue grew 63% year-over-year in Q1 2026, with backlog nearly doubling — filing_8k · tier A
- · Geopolitical Risk: US-China Tech Restrictions & Semiconductor Export Controls. US export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing to China (Biden CHIPS/ — risk_factors · tier A
The latest filing
2026-08-10 · Alphabet closes $25 billion offering of senior notes in multiple tranches due 2028-2066. · open the filing · 1 claims read
2026-06-04 · Alphabet announces $80 billion equity capital raise to expand AI infrastructure, including $10 billion Berkshire Hathaway investment · open the filing · 6 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines GOOGL itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.