AVGO: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $357.89, the price is right if every growth driver AVGO reports runs +14.1% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $145.10. The driver that carries it is Semiconductor solutions revenue growth YoY: the price needs +77.7% against a +22.5% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor solutions revenue growth YoY | +22.5% 2025-11-02 | +22.5% | +77.7% | ↑ leans higher · 20 for, 2 against |
| Infrastructure software revenue growth YoY | +25.8% 2025-11-02 | +25.8% | +101.2% | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 1 against |
| Operating margin | 48.6% 2026-05-03 | 48.6% | can't reach it alone | ↓ leans lower · 0 for, 1 against |
What the filings and calls say
- · META release 2026-07-29: Q2 2026 Capital Expenditures. Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases were $31.08 billion in Q2 2026. — cross_entity · tier A
- · 8-K 2025-09-09: AI Revenue Performance Targets. PSU vesting contingent on attaining highest aggregate AI revenue for any four consecutive fiscal quarters in the — filing_8k · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. For Q3 2026, we expect consolidated revenue to grow to $29.4B, up 84% YoY. AI semiconductor revenue of $16B, up over 200% YoY. Operat — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Semiconductor Solutions is 57.7% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. For Q3 2026, we expect consolidated revenue to grow to $29.4B, up 84% YoY. AI semiconductor revenue of $16B, up over 200% YoY. Operat — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Infrastructure Software is 42.3% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Software portfolio obsolescence risk (VMware). VMware acquisition introduced dependency on data center virtualization portfolio. Filing explicitly warns: 'growt — risk_factors · tier B
- · VMware / VCF Acceleration from AI-Driven Server Density. Enterprise AI workloads are driving strong server demand globally, accelerating on-prem VCF 9.1 deploym — transcript · tier C
- · margin direction: maintained. For Q3 2026, we expect consolidated revenue to grow to $29.4B, up 84% YoY. AI semiconductor revenue of $16B, up over 200% YoY. Ope — transcript · tier A
- · Tariff escalation and trade protectionism. Filing explicitly warns: 'increase in trade tensions and tariffs with U.S. trading partners... efforts to achieve ons — risk_factors · tier B
What would change the picture
- Capex guidance turns down at two or more customers (tier 1) — no print on file yet
- Customers' backlog or RPO stops growing (tier 1) — no print on file yet
- Computer and electronics new orders down year on year (tier 2) — last print 2026-07: 30739 · source
The latest filing
2026-07-06 · Broadcom and Apple expand technology collaboration through 2031 with new multi-year ASIC silicon supply agreements · open the filing · 1 claims read
2026-06-18 · Broadcom announces pricing terms of $2.5 billion cash tender offers for outstanding debt securities. · open the filing · 1 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines AVGO itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.