AAPL: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $319.97, the price is right if every growth driver AAPL reports runs +2.2% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $289.59. The driver that carries it is Service revenue growth: the price needs +26.2% against a +13.5% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone revenue | +4.2% 2025-09-27 | +4.2% | +10.7% | even · 1 for, 1 against |
| Service revenue growth | +13.5% 2025-09-27 | +13.5% | +26.2% | ↑ leans higher · 5 for, 0 against |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue | -3.6% 2025-09-27 | -3.6% | +34.4% | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| Mac revenue | +12.4% 2025-09-27 | +12.4% | +53.1% | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| iPad revenue | +5.0% 2025-09-27 | +5.0% | +53.1% | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Gross margin | 50.1% 2026-06-27 | 50.1% | 72.7% | ↓ leans lower · 1 for, 9 against |
| Operating expense ratio | 17.4% 2026-06-27 | 17.4% | can't reach it alone | no claims yet |
What the filings and calls say
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect our June total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year over year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply. — transcript · tier A
- · Segment iPhone is 25.2% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Short Product Life Cycles & Rapid Technology Adoption Cycles. The industry is characterized by short product life cycles and rapid adoption of technological adv — risk_factors · tier B
- · Analyst concern: Supply constraints scope and duration. Erik Woodring (Morgan Stanley) asked how much demand outpaced supply in March and whether June guidance — transcript · tier C
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect our June total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year over year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply. — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Service is 13.1% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Smartphone Installed Base Growth Driving Services Attach & ARPU. Filing notes iPhone line expanded with new models (iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone Air, iPhone 17, iPhone — opportunities · tier B
- · Brand & Ecosystem Lock-In via Services & Wearables Integration. Filing highlights integrated ecosystem across iPhone, Mac, iPad, Watch, AirPods, Vision Pro, wit — opportunities · tier B
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect our June total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year over year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply. — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Wearables, Home and Accessories is 4.3% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Apple Vision Pro Spatial Computing Platform Expansion. Apple Vision Pro (visionOS operating system) represents entry into spatial computing with potential for d — opportunities · tier B
- · revenue direction: raised. We expect our June total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year over year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply. — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Mac is 4.0% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Mac as an AI development and enterprise platform. Apple is repositioning Mac — particularly Mac mini, Mac Studio, and MacBook Neo — as the preferred hardware fo — transcript · tier C
The latest filing
2026-04-20 · Tim Cook to transition to Executive Chair; John Ternus appointed CEO effective September 1, 2026 · open the filing · 3 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines AAPL itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.