AA: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $44.64, the model at each driver's own trend prices AA at $54.60. The read below shows which reported driver, if any, closes that gap alone.
For today's price to be right, Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) has to run at about 7.6% for the whole horizon, with every other line on its own trend. That is below its trend (15.4%) and below the last print (17.4%, June 2026). No other line can reach the price on its own.
A 8.5-point move lower on that line prices the model at $44; a 8.5-point move higher, $65.
| Moves price | Line | Last print | Trend | Price needs | You |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP)level · 24 prints | 17.4%Jun 2026 | 15.4% | 7.6% | — | |
| Revenueyear one | — | +1% | — | — |
Only Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) can reach today's price on its own; the other line is held at trend. Growth bars are first-year rates on fading paths; ratio bars are levels held across the horizon.
the bar is the first-year rate on a path fading to the model's long run with the trend's half-life; the trend path is the kernel's own; the street, where shown, is a forecast
The bar on Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) has been recorded since 2026-09-21 (1 trading day); it is drawn as a line from 5 days. The read ledger gains a row every trading day.
Every cell is the model's price with Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) at that level, the rest at trend. One row, because no second line has a measured sensitivity. The blue cells are where today's price ($45) sits; the other filled cells are model-price positions, not good/bad calls.
● the last print · ○ the trend · ◆ you. each cell is the model price with Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) at that level and every other driver at trend; axes include the price-needs point, trend and last print when available; a growth level is the first-year rate fading like trend, a ratio holds; cells within ±2% of today's price are the line
this line is a margin, so its dollar effect depends on the revenue path above; Dawo shows it in the frontier rather than inventing a standalone dollar path.
Each yardstick against the bar on Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) (7.6% level). Six words, no magnitudes.
Today's price sits 18% below the model at trend. Any one of these levers closes that gap alone; which of them the market is using is not observable from the price.
| Lever | Needs | Reference | Sits | In words |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) | 7.6% | 15.4% | above | Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) at 7.6% next year against its trend of 15.4% |
| The discount rate | 13.1% | 10.1% | above | a 13.1% discount rate against the model's 10.1% (risk-free 4.9%, equity premium 4.0%, beta 1.51) |
| The terminal multiple | 9.3× | 13.5× | below | a 9.3x EV/EBITDA exit multiple against the model's 13.5x for Basic Materials |
each lever solved alone with every other input at the model's own value; positional words, no verdict
▸ Driver by driver · the numbers
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | +1.2% | needs source | no claims yet |
| Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items margin (non-GAAP) | 17.4% 2026-06-30 | 15.4% | 7.6% | no claims yet |
What the filings and calls say
The latest filing
2026-09-11 · South32 shareholders to vote on sale of bauxite, alumina and aluminum operations to Alcoa on October 15, 2026. · open the filing · 5 claims read
2026-09-10 · 8.01,9.01 · open the filing · 4 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines AA itself reports, in a commodity volume price structure, reviewed by integrity_gate. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.