UBER: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $72.63, the price is right if every growth driver UBER reports runs +17.0% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $44.96.
For today's price to be right, Adjusted EBITDA margin has to run at about 48.8% for the whole horizon, with every other line on its own trend. That is above its trend (18.2%) and well above the last print (18.2%, June 2026). 2 other lines could reach it alone: Mobility Revenue Margin, Mobility Gross Bookings.
A 3.7-point miss on that line prices the model at $41; a 3.7-point beat, $49.
| Moves price | Line | Last print | Trend | Price needs | You |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA marginratio · 43 prints | 18.2%Jun 2026 | 18.2% | holds | holds | |
| Mobility Revenue Marginyear one · 7 prints | -16%Mar 2026 | -10% | +56% | — | |
| Mobility Gross Bookingsyear one · 7 prints | +20%Mar 2026 | +20% | +95% | — | |
| Delivery revenueyear one · 11 prints | +28%Mar 2026 | +28% | — | — | |
| Freight Revenueyear one · 12 prints | +6%Mar 2026 | +6% | — | — |
2 of 5 lines can reach today's price on their own (Mobility Revenue Margin, Mobility Gross Bookings); each bar is read with every other line at trend.
the bar is the first-year rate on a path fading to the model's long run with the trend's half-life; the trend path is the kernel's own; the street, where shown, is a forecast
The bar on Adjusted EBITDA margin has been recorded since 2026-09-13 (3 trading days); it is drawn as a line from 5 days. The read ledger gains a row every trading day.
Every cell is the model's price with Adjusted EBITDA margin (across) and Mobility Revenue Margin (down) at those levels, the rest at trend. The filled cells are where today's price ($73) sits: above and below are positions on the grid, not judgements.
● the last print · ○ the trend · ◆ you. each cell is the model price with Adjusted EBITDA margin and Mobility Revenue Margin at those levels and every other driver at trend; a growth level is the first-year rate fading like trend, a ratio holds; cells within ±2% of today's price are the line
a margin has no dollar path; it is a share of one.
Each yardstick against the bar on Adjusted EBITDA margin (48.8% next year). Six words, no magnitudes.
Today's price sits 62% above the model at trend. Any one of these levers closes that gap alone; which of them the market is using is not observable from the price.
| Lever | Needs | Reference | Sits | In words |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 48.8% | 18.2% | below | Adjusted EBITDA margin at 48.8% next year against its trend of 18.2%; 2 other lines could reach it alone |
| The discount rate | 5.5% | 7.9% | below | a 5.5% discount rate against the model's 7.9% (risk-free 4.4%, equity premium 4.0%, beta 0.92) |
| The terminal multiple | — | 21.0× | not observable | out of range: even 30 prices the model at 51.76 against today's 72.63; the model's multiple is 21.0x for Industrials |
The multiple sits below the name's own history.
each lever solved alone with every other input at the model's own value; positional words, no verdict
▸ Driver by driver · the numbers
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility Gross Bookings | +20.0% 2026-03-31 | +20.0% | +94.5% | ↓ leans lower · 3 for, 5 against |
| Mobility Revenue Margin | -15.8% 2026-03-31 | -10.0% | +56.3% | no claims yet |
| Delivery revenue | +28.0% 2026-03-31 | +28.0% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Freight Revenue | +6.1% 2026-03-31 | +6.1% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 18.2% 2026-06-30 | 18.2% | 48.8% | ↓ leans lower · 2 for, 3 against |
What the filings and calls say
- · Segment Mobility is 57.0% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Secular Post-Pandemic Mobility Normalization and Platform Stickiness. MD&A references expectations for 'future Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs), Trips, — opportunities · tier A
- · Recession Sensitivity and Discretionary Spending Collapse. Ride-hailing and delivery are discretionary categories with high elasticity to consumer income. Reces — risk_factors · tier B
- · Emergence of Lower-Cost Substitutes and Alternative Mobility Models. Filing notes 'highly competitive industries with well-established and low-cost alternatives — risk_factors · tier B
- · Segment Delivery is 33.2% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Our guidance reflects continued momentum, disciplined capital allocation and a clear focus on durable, profitable growth. We feel eve — transcript · tier B
- · Segment Freight is 9.8% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Our guidance reflects continued momentum, disciplined capital allocation and a clear focus on durable, profitable growth. We feel eve — transcript · tier B
- · Freight Platform Digitization of Fragmented Logistics Market. Freight segment described as 'revolutionizing the logistics industry' by automating end-to-end log — opportunities · tier B
- · Driver Classification as Employees. Ongoing legal proceedings in multiple jurisdictions (US, UK, France, others) challenging driver independent contractor statu — risk_factors · tier B
- · Proprietary Marketplace Technology (Matching, Routing, Demand Prediction) as Competitive Moat. Filing emphasizes proprietary technologies in demand prediction, — opportunities · tier B
- · Intense Price Competition and Margin Compression. Filing explicitly states Uber has 'in the past lowered and may continue to lower fares' and offers 'significan — risk_factors · tier B
- · margin direction: raised. Our guidance reflects continued momentum, disciplined capital allocation and a clear focus on durable, profitable growth. We feel even — transcript · tier B
The latest filing
2026-08-07 · Uber enters into term loan credit agreement and new revolving credit facility totaling $7.7 billion for Delivery Hero acquisition · open the filing · 5 claims read
2026-07-16 · Uber to acquire Delivery Hero for €41.50 per share, representing $14.8 billion equity value, expected to close in H2 2027. · open the filing · 3 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines UBER itself reports, in a marketplace structure, reviewed by integrity_gate. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.