AMZN: what today's price assumes, in the company's own numbers
At $258.51, the price is right if every growth driver AMZN reports runs +6.8% a year against its own trend. At trend the model prices the name at $197.14. The driver that carries it is AWS net sales growth: the price needs +92.2% against a +37.0% trend.
Driver by driver
For each driver: the last figure the company printed, with its period; the driver's own trend; the rate today's price needs it to run at, with the others at trend; and where the evidence in filings and calls leans.
| Driver | Last printed | Trend | Price needs | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online Stores net sales growth | +9.0% 2025-12-31 | +9.0% | +35.5% | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Third-Party Seller Services net sales growth | +10.3% 2025-12-31 | +10.3% | +51.6% | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| AWS net sales growth | +37.0% 2026-06-30 | +37.0% | +92.2% | ↑ leans higher · 15 for, 0 against |
| Advertising services growth | +26.0% 2026-06-30 | +26.0% | +129.7% | ↑ leans higher · 3 for, 1 against |
| Subscription Services net sales growth | +11.8% 2025-12-31 | +11.8% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 1 for, 0 against |
| Physical Stores net sales growth | +6.3% 2025-12-31 | +6.3% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| North America segment operating income margin | 6.9% 2025-12-31 | 6.9% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
| AWS segment operating income margin | 35.4% 2025-12-31 | 35.4% | can't reach it alone | ↑ leans higher · 2 for, 0 against |
What the filings and calls say
- · Segment Online Stores is 18.9% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Q2 net sales expected between $194B–$199B; operating income $20B–$24B, with Prime Day in most large geographies. — transcript · tier A
- · Third-Party Seller Services & Marketplace Expansion in High-GMV Categories. Filing emphasizes 'sellers' as primary customer set, noting Amazon earns 'fixed fees — opportunities · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Q2 net sales expected between $194B–$199B; operating income $20B–$24B, with Prime Day in most large geographies. — transcript · tier A
- · Segment Third-Party Seller Services is 12.1% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · 8-K 2026-02-27: Expansion of existing compute agreement. OpenAI and AWS are expanding their existing $38 billion multi-year agreement by $100 billion over 8 yea — filing_8k · tier A
- · Segment Amazon Web Services is 9.0% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · Enterprise AI Compute Demand Cycle (Inference + Fine-Tuning Workloads). Filing explicitly names 'artificial intelligence and machine learning' as core AWS servi — opportunities · tier A
- · 8-K 2026-04-09: AI revenue run rate in AWS. AWS's AI revenue run rate reached over $15 billion in Q1 2026, compared to a $58 million run rate three years after — filing_8k · tier A
- · Segment Advertising Services is 4.8% of revenue — segment · tier A
- · revenue direction: raised. Q2 net sales expected between $194B–$199B; operating income $20B–$24B, with Prime Day in most large geographies. — transcript · tier A
- · First-Party Data & Advertising Network Moat (Closed-Loop Data). Filing emphasizes Amazon's control of 'consumers,' 'sellers,' 'advertisers,' and notes advertisi — opportunities · tier B
- · Supplier Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth & Vertical Integration. Brands and suppliers increasingly bypass Amazon via their own DTC channels, Amazon Busi — risk_factors · tier B
The latest filing
2026-04-14 · Amazon to acquire Globalstar for $90.00 per share in cash or 0.3210 Amazon shares, expected to close in 2027. · open the filing · 5 claims read
2026-04-09 · Amazon reports $717 billion revenue in 2025, up 12% YoY, with $11 billion free cash flow amid $200 billion capex investment in AI infrastructure. · open the filing · 5 claims read
How this read is made
The drivers are the lines AMZN itself reports, in a general segments structure, reviewed by claude-review (protocol run 2026-09-06). Every figure is a dated print from a filing or a release; no model writes a number. “Price needs” is the first-year rate on a path that fades to the model's long-run rate, solved so the model price equals today's, with the other drivers at their own trend. The evidence is the filings' and calls' own sentences, sorted for direction only. The method is on the methodology page; every read is sealed on the day and scored by the next print on the ledger.
Research, not advice. Every figure is a dated print from a filing or release you can open; nothing here is a verdict to adopt, and the view on any name is yours to write.